The elections are being organized during an ongoing civil war, with much of the country outside of military control. Key opposition parties like the National League for Democracy (NLD) have been dissolved, and large parts of the population — especially in resistance-held areas — won’t be able to vote. Political repression remains severe, with thousands of activists and journalists imprisoned.

While some foreign actors like China and Thailand see the elections as a path to stability, and a few domestic groups hope they might open political space, most experts and citizens are deeply sceptical. Unlike flawed elections elsewhere in the region, Myanmar’s planned vote fails every major test of democratic credibility.

If held, the polls will likely deepen divisions rather than solve them. Any resulting parliament will be dominated by military-aligned parties and exclude large sections of the country. This could worsen the conflict and further split Myanmar into a central military zone and autonomous ethnic regions.

Despite this, the elections may still go ahead. In that case, the key question is not whether they are legitimate — they clearly are not — but how different groups respond. Elections won’t end the war, but they may shape the next phase of Myanmar’s ongoing struggle for a political future.